Monday, February 28

Chimerica or Chindia: Who Will Dominate the 21st Century?

A good read from Evans-Pritchard which covers several of the main issues which will determine which nation(s) will prosper the most in the 21st century.

Some of the key pieces of data highlighted in the article:
  • Demographic trends (e.g., China's 1.2 males/female ratio suggest social instability)
  • China’s workforce peaks in absolute terms in four years
  • Birth rates: Beijing and Shanghai are 1.0, Korea is 1.1, Singapore 1.2, Germany 1.3, Poland 1.3, Italy 1.4, Russia 1.4 with the U.S. coming in around the population replenishment rate of 2.1
  • Environmental catastrophe: China's growth rate of 10% is outstripped by 13.5% in GDP equivalent eco-damage)


  1. Jarad Diamond in 'Collapse' argued that China would indeed collapse due to a number of factors, primarily environmental degradation. Presently China is experiencing severe drought in its north-western regions, widespread water shortages, the Telegraph article mentions the draining of acquifers taking place. There is an almost total disregard for effective control of industrial pollution. Recently the Chinese have conceded that the Three Gorges Dams project is an environmental disaster in the making ( Certainly serious issues to address. Then China is sitting on a mountain of money...!

    America after all. Particularly considering military dominance, Robert Kaplan would agree:

  2. Good reads, thanks for sharing the links.